Solar Storm Forecast – October 18, 2020 at 08:14PM

Credit: Dr.Tamitha Skov #SpaceWeatherWoman #TamithaSkov #SpaceWeather #SolarStormForecast #SolarStorm


 
 
Our Sun is definitely waking up with eye-candy to boot! We went from a spotless Sun just last week to multiple bright regions on the Earth-facing disk, including two sunspots in Earth view (and possibly another if you count the big region on the Sun’s farside). These regions have not only boosted the solar flux into the mid-70s, but they are also firing off B and C-class solar flares. One of these flares, which occurred just slightly behind the Sun’s west limb resulted in the most spectacular fire plume we have seen yet in this new cycle. Likely this flare was larger than we saw at Earth because the Sun partially blocked it from view.Even at a C5-level, it still gave us a gorgeous show. Aurora photographers will appreciate the fact we have a coronal hole that will rotate into the Earth-strike zone later this week. This will begin an extended period of fast solar wind from several coronal holes, including a polar coronal hole we have seen before. Last month the fast solar wind from these coronal holes brought us up to G2-storm levels. We will see if this will be a repeat performance. If so, we expect the peak of the storm to be sometime around October 25. Finally, the farside of the Sun is almost as dazzling as the front side. We have a stunning filament bridge dangling over a big bright region on the Sun’s east limb in STEREO’s view. It is hard to tell if this filament can hang on until it rotates into Earth view before about these active regions, how radio propagation and GPS reception is faring with all this new activity, and see what else our Sun has in store!
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For a more in-depth look at the data and images Highlighted in this video see these links below.

Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch

Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23 +00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/
NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html

Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html

Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more.